Client Type: A soft-drinks manufacturer
The Brief: Our client had heard rumours that a competitor planned to alter the formulation of their diet / sugar-free drink products in the UK, and that test marketing was being carried out overseas. We were asked to investigate and report.
Our Approach: Using in-depth online (OSINT – Open-Source Intelligence) research we were able to confirm that the competitor was test marketing the new formula and was using the new name in another country. We backed this up via interviews with industry and trade experts.
This gave us evidence on the likely strategy, but it was not enough to confirm this was the strategy to be implemented in the UK. (This isn’t unusual: strategic plans are viewed as highly confidential and so cannot be obtained ethically). Nevertheless, in-depth analysis can give the required insights and suggest the most likely strategy. In this case, we used a game-theory approach, to model the risk factors for:
- Change of name and formulation
- Name change only
- Formulation change only
The Result: We predicted a formulation change only, with a name change, to follow, after the resulting new taste had been accepted. This is exactly what happened and allowed our client to proactively respond rather than reactively try to counter the moves.
Key Takeaway: Strategic foresight / structured risk analyses using techniques such as game theory help companies navigate uncertainty and turn potential threats into manageable strategic options.
